With President-elect Donald Trump set to assume office next month, optimism is growing for the expansion of the Abraham Accords, including the potential normalization of relations between Israel and Indonesia. Daniel J. Samet, writing for the Atlantic Council, underscores the strategic and economic benefits such a development could bring.
The incoming Trump administration could play a decisive role by offering incentives such as a state visit for President Prabowo, a new bilateral trade agreement, or increased investment in Indonesia. Strengthening US-Indonesian ties would not only bolster Jakarta’s economy but also increase its influence in the region.
Indonesia’s Strategic Importance
Indonesia, the most populous Muslim-majority country and the world’s fourth-largest nation, is seen as a vital addition to the Abraham Accords. According to Samet, Indonesia’s inclusion would significantly bolster Israel’s security and economic ties in the region.
While the October 2023 Hamas-Israel conflict temporarily delayed normalization efforts, Indonesia’s recent engagements with both outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden and Israeli President Isaac Herzog signal Jakarta’s openness to re-engage once the Gaza conflict subsides.
Economic Opportunities
Indonesia’s economy, ranked sixteenth globally, dwarfs the combined economies of current Abraham Accord members such as the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. It is also projected to surpass Russia in Purchasing Power Parity terms by 2026.
Normalization could unleash substantial commercial potential. Trade between Israel and Indonesia, currently valued at a few hundred million dollars annually, could expand dramatically. Indonesia could benefit from Israel’s advanced technologies, while Israel could access Indonesia’s abundant natural resources, including palm oil, rubber, and coffee. Tourism and defense ties are also areas with untapped potential.
Security and Counter-Terrorism Collaboration
The two countries have a decadeslong history of defense ties, dating back at least as far as the presidency of Jimmy Carter, whose administration oversaw the sale of American-supplied A-4 Skyhawk warplanes from Israel to Indonesia. Israeli arms could help Indonesia deal with its increasingly unstable neighborhood. Perhaps more importantly, Jerusalem could share its counter-terrorism capabilities with Jakarta, which has long battled Islamist terrorists throughout the country.
More generally, Indonesia occupies a key location in the Indo-Pacific, a region Israeli strategists have increasingly prioritized. The more Israel expands its footprint there, the better for its geopolitical standing.
Indonesia’s joining the Abraham Accords might encourage other countries to follow suit. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations is headquartered in Jakarta and has two other member states, Malaysia and Brunei, that do not haveformal relations with Israel. Although the two haven’t shown the same openness to normalization as Indonesia, Jakarta’s going first might change things.
U.S. Role in Facilitating Normalization
Samet emphasizes the critical role of the incoming Trump administration in fostering Indonesia-Israel ties. Measures such as offering Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto a state visit, negotiating a new trade agreement, and accelerating arms transfers could strengthen U.S.-Indonesia relations. These efforts could also counter China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region, leveraging Indonesia’s strategic location and resources.
Additionally, Indonesia’s aspirations for membership in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) could serve as a negotiating point. U.S. and Israeli support for Jakarta’s accession could encourage progress toward normalization.
A Win-Win Opportunity
Normalization between Indonesia and Israel would benefit all parties involved, enhancing regional stability, economic growth, and U.S. leadership in the Indo-Pacific. As the Trump administration takes charge, the prospect of Indonesia joining the Abraham Accords could signal a transformative moment in Middle Eastern and Southeast Asian diplomacy.