U.S.- and Saudi-backed Joseph Aoun, entrusted with maintaining the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, pledges a state monopoly on arms and vows to usher in a “new phase” for Lebanon’s recovery and stability.
In a historic and symbolic shift for Lebanon and the broader Middle East, Joseph Aoun has been elected president of Lebanon, signaling a decisive turning point in the nation’s tumultuous political and military landscape. This election comes as Hezbollah, once a dominant force in the region, faces a sharp decline in military and political power, exacerbated by its defeat in last year’s war and the collapse of its Syrian ally, Bashar al-Assad, in December.
The election reflects a significant realignment of power, with Saudi Arabia regaining influence in Lebanon after years of being eclipsed by Iran and Hezbollah. The presidency, traditionally reserved for a Maronite Christian in Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system, had been vacant since October 2022 following the end of Michel Aoun’s term. Deep divisions among Lebanon’s factions had paralyzed the political process, but the election of Joseph Aoun highlights a newfound unity and an opportunity to weaken the grip of Hezbollah, which has long dominated Lebanon’s political and military spheres.
This transformation of Lebanon’s political dynamics has paved the way for a diverse group of Lebanese politicians to form an alliance. With backing from international partners including the United States and Gulf countries, as well as discrete support from Israel, they aim to elect a president capable of bringing stability to Lebanon.
Thursday’s parliamentary session was attended by several foreign diplomats, including the French special envoy Jean-Yves Le Druan and ambassadors of the Quint committee (Egypt, France, USA, Qatar and Saudi Arabia) that is following up on the issue of presidential vacancy in Lebanon.
“There is a very clear message from the international community that they are ready to support Lebanon, but that needs a president, a government,” Michel Mouawad, a Christian lawmaker opposed to Hezbollah who voted for Aoun, told Reuters before the vote. “We did get a message from Saudi of support,” he added.
Aoun’s election is a first step towards reviving government institutions in a country which has had neither a head of state nor a fully empowered cabinet since Aoun left office.
The push for Aoun’s election was further supported by diplomatic efforts from French and Saudi envoys, who met with Lebanese politicians in the lead-up to the vote.
According to sources, they conveyed that international financial aid, including from Saudi Arabia, was contingent on Aoun’s election. Christian lawmaker Michel Mouawad, who voted for Aoun, confirmed that Saudi Arabia expressed its support for the candidate.
Aoun’s victory is viewed as a crucial step toward restoring Lebanon’s weakened government institutions, and improving economic situation. Lebanese leaders and international diplomats are exploring a potential shift in southern Lebanon’s security dynamics, highlighted by U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein’s recent discussions with Speaker Nabih Berri. Their talks centered on strengthening the Lebanese Armed Forces’ role as the primary security authority in the south – a region where Hezbollah has traditionally maintained significant military presence and autonomy. This diplomatic initiative suggests growing international support for restoring state control over the country’s southern territories.
With Lebanon’s economy still reeling from the financial collapse of 2019, the new president’s primary challenge will be to stabilise the country and secure international assistance for reconstruction. The World Bank has estimated the cost of rebuilding Lebanon’s war-torn infrastructure at $8.5 billion.
Randa Slim, a senior fellow at the Washington DC-based Middle East Institute said that the military and political weakening of Hezbollah following more than a year of conflict with Israel — which it initiated — and the fall of fellow Iran-backed ally Assad in Syria, along with international pressure to elect a president had paved the way for Thursday’s results.
“A new phase in the history of Lebanon begins today,” he told the chamber, adding that he would call for “quick parliamentary consultations” on naming a new prime minister.
Aoun also vowed to ensure that the state would have “a monopoly” on the right to carry arms, referring to the Hezbollah terror group’s extensive arsenal, which he had not commented on publicly as commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces.
Israel extended congratulations to Beirut on the election of Joseph Aoun as Lebanon’s new president. Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar expressed hope for fostering “good neighborliness,” as Aoun signaled his intention to restrain Hezbollah’s activities and uphold the fragile truce that ended the group’s conflict with Israel in late November. US Ambassador to Lebanon Lisa Johnson said she was “very happy” with Aoun’s election as president..
Ceasefire and New Prospects
As of November 27, 2024, a 60-day ceasefire brokered by the United States, France, and Israel has been in effect, offering a glimmer of hope for stability. The ceasefire not only diminishes Hezbollah’s military influence but also opens the door for Lebanon to consider joining the Abraham Accords, a regional peace initiative. For this vision to materialize, however, Lebanon must address its internal challenges and rebuild its governance structures, long eroded by weak institutions, political paralysis and sectarian divisions.
The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), bolstered by promised support from France and the United States, are stepping up efforts to maintain internal stability and prevent a resurgence of Hezbollah’s influence. The virtual closing of Syrian supply lines for Iranian weapons, following Assad’s downfall, further weakens Hezbollah’s capabilities. Observers note that Hezbollah’s diminished power represents a rare chance for Lebanon to reclaim its sovereignty and rebuild its institutions free from the militia’s shadow.
A Nation’s Resurgence
The weakening of Hezbollah has ignited hope among Lebanon’s diverse communities, many of whom have long opposed the Iranian-backed group’s stranglehold on the country. For years, Lebanon has endured the devastating consequences of Hezbollah’s dominance, from the 2019 economic collapse to the catastrophic Beirut Port explosion in 2020. Now, with Hezbollah’s influence waning, there is renewed optimism for peace and prosperity.
The Abraham Accords, spearheaded during former U.S. President Donald Trump’s first term, could serve as a pathway for Lebanon to normalize relations with Israel. Now, according to new regional realities, Lebanon’s priorities have shifted away from the external issue toward securing its own stability and future. A majority of Lebanese, including many Sunnis now see regional peace and country’s own economic development as a more urgent priority.
For Lebanon’s Christian community, joining the Abraham Accords represents a chance to reassert their role in the region’s evolving geopolitical landscape. The potential normalization of relations with Israel would mark a significant departure from Lebanon’s historic stance and pave the way for economic recovery and integration into regional frameworks.
If peace and stability are ensured, Lebanese youth who departed in recent years might be inspired to return, bringing vital skills to help rebuild their homeland. International support could further accelerate this revival.
A Path Forward
With Hezbollah’s military capabilities reportedly reduced by 80 percent, the possibility of lasting peace in Lebanon is more tangible than ever.
“Today, a new phase in the history of Lebanon begins,” Joseph Aoun said.
Lebanon stands at a pivotal moment of potential transformation, though significant challenges remain ahead. The Lebanese people, renowned throughout history for their resilient entrepreneurial spirit and ability to rebuild despite adversity, now have several promising developments converging: the election of Joseph Aoun brings fresh leadership, a negotiated ceasefire offers stability, and the possibility of joining the Abraham Accords could forge new regional partnerships. These developments, taken together, present Lebanon with its most substantial opportunity in decades to chart a new course away from historical cycles of conflict and instability. The convergence of these factors – new leadership, reduced tensions, and potential regional integration – could help Lebanon tap into its considerable human capital and economic potential to build more sustainable prosperity.